"For the first time since we began estimating ad revenues at Google, the company’s net US digital ad revenues will decline in absolute terms. Facebook and Amazon will continue to grow but at severely depressed rates compared with earlier expectations. The triopoly’s size this year will be similar to what it was in 2019—increasing by $1.69 billion—but with a somewhat different internal breakdown.
By the end of 2020, Google’s net US digital ad revenues will drop 5.3% to $39.58 billion. That brings Google’s share of the US digital ad market to 29.4%, down from 31.6% last year. Our Q1 2020 forecast (which did not account for a global pandemic) predicted Google’s US ad revenues would grow 12.9%, but its market share would still shrink slightly.
“Google has been growing its net US ad revenues at a slower rate than the overall digital ad market since 2016, so this year will continue a trend of Google losing digital ad market share in the US,” said Nicole Perrin, eMarketer principal analyst at Insider Intelligence.
Despite downward revisions to both forecasts, Facebook and Amazon will increase their net US ad revenues this year, while the total digital ad market inches up by 1.7%."
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