"Nevertheless, macroeconomic indicators, paired with industry data, are the best modelling ingredients we have. A regression model based on IMF data for GDP and other macro-economic indicators provides us with an estimated decline of the total UK ad market of 13.3%, and 16.3% for all of Europe (including the UK).
This forecast, conducted in May, is more optimistic than our April forecast. We have factored in the easing of lockdown restrictions (Government Response Stringency Index, University of Oxford) and additional signal from Q1 company reports. Crucially, especially the walled gardens reported better than expected results and indication of a bottoming out of ad declines in April with signs of slowing year-on-year declines in May."
