The vaccine roll-out and the easing of coronavirus restrictions will allow the EU's economy to recover faster than initially expected. Some countries will regain their losses already in 2021, while others will have to wait until 2022.
This is the latest economic forecast from the European Commission, which projects that the eurozone economy will grow by 3.8% in both 2021 and 2022 after falling an unprecedented 6.8% in 2020.
The EU economy as a whole will see growth of 3.7% in 2021 and 3.9% in 2022 after a 6.3% drop last year.
According to the latest figures, a group of EU members states will be able to fully recover this year, including Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg and Poland.
Finland and Sweden will come close to a complete return of their economic prowess.
The 2021 growth in countries like Germany, France, Belgium, Portugal, Denmark, Malta, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania will not be enough to recoup all the losses and they will have to wait until next year to see a complete improvement according to current thinking.
Meanwhile, southern countries such as Spain, Greece and Italy might have to wait even longer after plunging 11%, 10% and 8.8% in 2020, respectively. Their estimated numbers in 2021 and 2022 will fail to totally compensate the shock.
Ireland is the only EU country that grew in 2020 after expanding 3 percent, partly thanks to exports from multinational companies specialising in medical equipment, pharmaceuticals and computer services.
The forecast projects that inflation in the euro area is set to increase from 0.3% in 2020 to 1.4% in 2021, before moderating slightly to 1.3% in 2022.
For the most part, the effects of the envisaged €750 billion EU recovery fund have not been taken into account in the latest figures due to "lack of data". The package could help fuel stronger growth.
Uncertain times, uneven recovery
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